The Ukrainian Crisis*

Intro - Current state of play

It’s very difficult to get an accurate picture of what’s going on on the ground. In any conflict the first couple of weeks there’s disinformation, competing narratives, have to take what both sides say with a big pinch of salt. Have to wait until clear pattern emerge and what both sides agree on.

One objective Russia has achieved is to take NATO membership off the table for good.

What is agreed on is the territory Russia has taken. They are beginning to carve up Ukraine.

Map of occupied Ukraine as of 21st March 2022

It’s not looking good for Ukraine, they appear to have lost control of the skies and a lot of the transport infrastructure. They don’t seem to be able to move their troops around freely.

There’s also reports of shops running low on food and shortages of medicines in hospitals.

In two or three weeks we could be looking at the unfolding of a humanitarian crisis.

We should make it clear – Totally condemn invasion. It’s not to defend the Russian speaking population, it’s a land grab, an imperialist expansion.

But the position of socialists is not to declare support for one side. It is what’s in the best interests of the working class, what will advance or defend their interests, what will unite them.

We need to be grounded firm analysis.

Understand that movements and events driven by class struggle and international rivalry between capitalists.

That is what informs our understanding, enables us to outline a way forward based on our understanding of how events are likely to develop.

The Ukraine crisis can only be fully understood in a global context.

Over the last ten or fifteen years we have seen the transition from a unipolar world to a multi-polar world.

We are seeing the rise of global powers, Russia and China and the rise of regional powers like Iran and Turkey.

This is a challenge to the hegemony of US imperialism.

The US has enforced its domination through a mixture of economic and military power.

U.S. policy is based on what it calls the Munroe doctrine. This was formulated in the early 1800s and stated that the U.S. would not tolerate the influence of other powers in the Americas. Also that its strategic interests trumps other nations.

As American influence grew around the world the Munroe Doctrine followed and evolved to challenge strategic spheres around the globe.

Robert Kagan an official in the Reagan administration summed up the American position:

"The United States has been not simply a regional power, but rather a regional power in every strategic region. It has served as the maintainer of regional balances in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.".

Joe Biden in 2015, when he was Vice President, put it more bluntly:

"We will not recognize any nation as having a sphere of influence...".

Given this the conflict between the US and Russia was inevitable, albeit using Ukraine as a proxy.

The national Question

I want to move to comments made by Putin in his address (21st February 2022) to Russia, his excuses for invading. He criticised Lenin’s support for the rights of nations to self-determination.

Putin addressing a rally in Moscow

 

 This question is an important one for socialists, a key principle, so I’ll spend a bit of time on it.

First I’ll quote extracts from Putin:

“So, I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia – by separating, severing what is historically Russian land. Nobody asked the millions of people living there what they thought….”

Putin then outlined Stalin’s position, countries as autonomous units and went on:

“Lenin criticised this plan and suggested making concessions to the nationalists, whom he called “independents” at that time. Lenin’s ideas of what amounted in essence to a confederative state arrangement and a slogan about the right of nations to self-determination, up to secession...”

Lenin’s position.

"The close alliance between the Norwegian and Swedish workers, their complete fraternal class solidarity, gained from the Swedish workers’ recognition of the right of the Norwegians to secede. This convinced the Norwegian workers that the Swedish workers were not infected with Swedish nationalism, and that they placed fraternity with the Norwegian proletarians above the privileges of the Swedish bourgeoisie and aristocracy. The dissolution of the ties imposed upon Norway by the monarchs of Europe and the Swedish aristocracy strengthened the ties between the Norwegian and Swedish workers. The Swedish workers have proved … they will be able to preserve and defend the complete equality and class solidarity of the workers of both nations in the struggle against both the Swedish and the Norwegian bourgeoisie."

The essence of the right to self determination is to achieve the international unity of the working class against a common capitalist enemy.

As Socialists that’s why recognise Ukraine's right to self-determination.

But while we express solidarity with Ukrainian workers we should have no truck with its ruling class or their political representatives.

After Ukraine’s independence Communist Party and state officials looted state assets and became billionaires. Ukraine’s economy has been the worse performing economy of the ex-Soviet bloc countries

Ukraine's economy

Journalists keep saying Ukraine is a prosperous country but the numbers say otherwise.

• Real average wages are still below 1990 levels.

• GDP per head has not recovered from the 1990 level.

• 45% classed as poor – 9.5% unemployment rate

• Since the 2014 uprising/coup Ukraine has imposed IMF directed austerity. For example welfare spending has been cut from 20% of GDP to 13%.

• There's also substantial privatisation programme under way.

Oligarchs have done no favours for ordinary people, their turn to the west self serving. They were hoping for access to the lucrative western markets.

Conclusion

The U.S. and the west have miscalculated. In spite of all the headlines they didn’t expect Russia to launch a full invasion. Russia has basically done an Israel and established facts on the ground.

Ukrainian oligarchs have also blundered, they believed the west would back them militarily. Naive, the west was never going to risk direct confrontation.

Western policy makers are starting to realise that the invasion marks a fundamental change. Defence minister, Ben Wallace, has predicted 10 - 20 years of intense struggle. A Sky journalist remarked that Russia has upended the world order.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a profound change in the balance of world power.

The U.S’ Munroe Doctrine has become at odds with world developments.

Which means we're headed into a more dangerous and unpredictable period.

There will be sudden twists and unexpected turns.

As I said at start if we’re not grounded with a firm class based analysis it will be easy to drift and become disorientated by events.

That’s why educating ourselves is important, that’s our weapon.

As some old Trot once said, that gives us the advantage of foresight over astonishment.

G.H

*Transcript of a talk given 3rd March 2022